Elk River, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

543
FXUS63 KMPX 252353
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
653 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The prolonged heat wave continues this weekend. Extreme Heat
  Warnings and Heat Advisories have been posted through Sunday
  evening. The hottest day will be Sunday when heat indices will
  reach 100 to 110.

- Less humid air arrives Monday, but highs will remain in the
  mid 80s to low 90s next week.

- Low confidence persists on convective development through
  Sunday night due to capping and scattered/disorganized nature
  of storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

EXTREME HEAT...The main axis of the heat ridge will remain over
the Rockies through the weekend into early next week. However,
surface fronts will maintain the extensive warm sector across
the WFO MPX coverage area, including elevated low-mid level
moisture advection, through the weekend. This means not just the
daytime hours with highs in the low-mid 90s today and into the
mid-upper 90s Sunday but also overnight lows mainly in the low-
mid 70s tonight and Sunday night. With dewpoints into the upper
60s to mid 70s (even upper 70s tomorrow), this will prolong
dangerous heat conditions through Sunday night, hence the
expansion of the Extreme Heat Warning from much of our MN area
to the remainder of our area tonight into tomorrow. Sunday will
be by far the hottest day with HI`s for nearly our entire area
reaching 105-110 and WBGT`s climbing into the upper 80s for the
vast majority of our area. The heat ridge will retreat westward
for early next week while a weak frontal boundary drops south,
which will allow dewpoints to drop off appreciably, back to the
60s to near 70 for the rest of the week while gradually fall
back to the upper 80s to lower 90s. So, not to say it won`t at
all be warm/humid depending on location within our 51 counties,
but it will not be nearly as hot/muggy as today through Sunday.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...Quite the tricky and low confidence
forecast when it comes to the where/when of any convection which
may develop over the WFO MPX coverage area. Quiet thus far
today, not only over our area but also upstream over the eastern
Dakotas. Starting to see some development over western SD in
response to strong surface heating and modest to steep lapse
rates and inherent instability. 12z RAOBs and model soundings
still show plenty of mid-level capping with warm H85-H7
temperatures that seem to be diminished in pockets, similar to
where there are spots of stronger surface heating than others.
The idea is that storms will blossom over eastern SD and drift
ESE into southwestern MN later this afternoon through this
evening. However, only a few CAMs indicate such idea, and even
fewer run-to-run today. Some CAMs indicate no convection at all.
So this is a highly conditional setup for today due to the
strong low-mid level capping (indicative per the continual low
level stratus today) and the patchwork of integrating higher
instability, plus with fairly unimpressive dynamics aloft.

Once past tonight`s potential convection (and there is even the
idea among a few CAMs of a sunrise-ish complex over eastern MN
into western WI, so still plenty of uncertainty), then there
looks to be a better organization Sunday afternoon-evening
despite continued wide-ranging model solutions. More NW flow
aloft may allow a few disturbances to rush through the area,
especially within the higher temp/dewpoint regime leading to
steep lapse rates and poorer capping with a weak frontal
boundary dropping south. Still rather disorganized in nature,
there may be a few clusters of storms late day into the evening
with the main "target" area as far western into far southern MN.


MONDAY ONWARD...A more tranquil pattern looks to settle in
starting on Monday with drier air and a slow drop of
temperatures as the week progresses. Overall, highs will return
to the mid 80s to lower 90s as a general range throughout the
week while dewpoints fall back to the 60s to near 70 during the
daytime hours. It is possible that the TC metro may need a Heat
Advisory on Monday but otherwise the forecast does not seem to
support any additional heat headlines beyond the weekend. More
pronounced northwest flow aloft will prevail throughout the week
with the occasional disturbance drifting through the Upper
Midwest. No appreciable surface boundaries are expected for our
region, which will limit any chances for precipitation due to
the lack of forcing and lack of low level convergence features.
The best chance after this weekend looks to come late Thursday
through early Friday, mainly owing to a fairly well-defined
shortwave trough aloft expected to move through the region.
Nothing impressive nor any surface features, but a swath of
deeper moisture accompanying the trough looks to produce
scattered showers/thunderstorms for late Thu into Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Fairly quiet start to the 00z TAF window as the primary near
term concern is lingering MVFR Cu across southeastern MN and
western WI. Latest obs show that Cu has scattered out at
MKT/MSP/RNH, but remains at EAU. Attention turns back to the
west where severe storms have fired across South Dakota. General
consensus across the guidance suite is that some flavor of
convective complex will move across southwestern MN and turn
towards northern IA tonight. We`ve opted to introduce PROB30`s
at RWF & MKT where the highest probabilities for storms exist
across the hi-res guidance. In addition to the storm chances at
the southern terminals, we will also monitor potential visibility
reductions at the western WI terminals due to ground fog. The
slow to clear Cu has introduced some doubt in the degree of
clearing across western WI, which adds uncertainty into widespread
fog will be. That said, followed LAMP trends and introduced
TEMPOs for visibility reductions before/through daybreak.
Southerly winds increase to between 5-10kts tomorrow. Scattered
storms are possible tomorrow afternoon and evening, but
confidence in coverage is low. Forthcoming TAFs may need the
introduction of convective probs.

KMSP...Main focus heading into tonight will be the eastward
track of storms moving across South Dakota. Latest hi-res
guidance keeps the storms well to the south and west of the
terminal. With a strong cap aloft, with will maintain a dry 00z
TAF, but it`s plausible that a shower or storm could develop
late tonight. Additional storm chances are possible tomorrow,
mainly across western WI. Once again, we`ll keep the TAF dry for
now, but further refinements may be needed.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. NW at 10-15G25kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 11 AM CDT Sunday for Benton-Chisago-
     Douglas-Goodhue-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-
     Sherburne-Stearns-Todd.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for Benton-
     Chisago-Douglas-Goodhue-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-
     Morrison-Sherburne-Stearns-Todd.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for Anoka-Blue
     Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-
     Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-
     Sibley-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-
     Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Heat Advisory until 11 AM CDT Sunday for Pierce-Polk-St. Croix.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for Barron-
     Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...Strus